| HD's 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9 and SD's 31, 32, and 33 are all uncontested, so their assemblies will likely put them on the primary ballot by acclamation. (and SD35 is not up this year)
In HD4, all 3 candidates (Amber Tafoya, Jennifer Coken, and Dan Pabon) are going the assembly route. It is numerically possible for all 3 to make it, but they would have to pretty evenly split the vote to do it. From what I am hearing about this race, that doesn't seem likely.
In HD5, all 4 candidates are going assembly: Crisanta Duran, Jose Silva, Mark Thrun, and JJ Swiontek. It is numerically impossible for them all to get on. Having 4 candidates ups the odds of only one making it, but I am expecting to see two come out it, just have no idea which two it will be.
In HD7, only 2 candidates are going assembly: Angela Williams and Jon Goldin-Dubois. The other 3 have indicated they are petitioning: Mark Mehringer, Blake Harrison, and Russell Green. This means there is a good chance all 5 candidates will be on the primary ballot.
In SD34, Lucia Guzman now has the assembly all to herself. Jerry Frangas has dropped out to run for City Council instead. Joel Judd has indicated he will petition.
Of course, there is always the possibility of a floor nomination. But before that can happen, a majority the delegates at the assembly must approve a suspension of the rules to allow it.
For those candidates who go to assembly, but do not make the 30% threshold to get on the ballot, they can still petition as long as they get at least 10% at Assembly. They will still have about a month and a half to get a 1000 signatures of Dems living in their distirct. If they are nominated at Assembly but do not get 10%, they are done. |
